Fleet and Mobility Services - What to Expect in 2025

As we approach 2025, the fleet and mobility services industry stands at a critical juncture. Huge advancements in AI and technology are driving autonomous vehicles and delivering unprecedented gains in efficiency and sustainability. At the same time, complex political and regulatory pressures demand strategic navigation. These converging forces will fundamentally reshape the industry's landscape in the coming year.

As we predicted for 2024, in the ride based business, autonomous vehicles are expanding service, especially robotaxis that have driven over 60 million miles so far, and Uber is using its massive install base to forge partnerships with both traditional and autonomous taxi companies. Also, as predicted, EV sales grew in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed. Lastly, last-mile delivery services continue to evolve their service offering, incorporating new real-time delivery management solutions and more sophisticated transportation modes, including multimodality.

2025 will be marked by the further adoption of AI and advanced fleet management solutions

Looking ahead, 2025 will be marked by the further adoption of AI and advanced fleet management solutions, more autonomous vehicle services hitting the streets (although not yet universally available), and the continued proliferation of EVs that continue on their path to becoming mainstream. 

However, US protective tariffs on Chinese goods, the threat of a  25% tax on imports from Mexico and Canada, and the EU 35.3% tariffs on Chinese EVs will drive vehicle prices up and hamper new vehicle purchases. For EVs, regulatory uncertainty, including the rollback of sustainability measures, may make things even worse, despite local initiatives.

On the other hand, the creation of a federal framework for autonomous vehicles may promote growth, although it is still no more than an idea that is yet to take shape.

Let’s look at some of the main themes that will be central for fleets in 2025.

Digital fleet management empowered by AI 

As more fleets and operations become digitized, the role of digital fleet management is significantly transformed by growing AI integration. This includes generative AI fleet management solutions that allow conversational interactions and unlock access to data and insights across the organization, as well as the implementation of advanced machine learning and analytics.

2025 will continue to see unprecedented insights into fleet performance that will shape operations, making fleets perform better and more efficiently across various parameters.  

The integration of automated workflow management will streamline operations across the board, from driver-dispatcher interactions to preventive maintenance, from handling accidents and damage to enforcing a charging strategy, and beyond (at Autofleet, we saw more than 80% reduction in downtime due to automation and optimizations).

Autonomous transportation rolling on 

The most visibly futuristic part of the mobility revolution we are in the midst of is the growing presence of autonomous vehicles, specifically robotaxis, providing ride services. San Francisco is the hub of this innovation, with Waymo’s service now available to all and providing over 150,000 paid rides per week, followed by Las Vegas and Phoenix.   

Uber is back in the autonomous game, but not with its own car. Instead, it is creating a network of partnerships with autonomous vehicle operators. Following its successful collaboration with Waymo in Phoenix, operations are expected to expand beyond Austin and Atlanta, which were recently announced. And Uber continues to seek out other autonomous vehicle operators (e.g.,Wayve) to collaborate with, hedging its bet and leveraging its B2C brand power and large install base. 

As for Tesla's robotaxi, we will have to wait at least until 2026 for it to roll out. And it may have to face regulatory hurdles in some markets, despite recent rumors of easing regulations for AVs due to Elon Musk’s pull in the White House. Still, Tesla has proven it is capable of great innovations many times over, making the future of autonomous mobility look bright.    

Over in China, Baidu, Didi, WeRide, Pony.ai and AutoX to name a few are all aggressively playing catch-up with American AVs, with Baidu’s Apollo Go offering replaceable batteries to cut costs and other innovations including integrating autonomous taxis and road infrastructure and sensors. However, trade relations between the US and China, and safety concerns mean Chinese autonomous vehicles will probably not make it to the West for a while. 

The AV delivery market is also expected to grow. Propelled by companies in the United States and Canada pushing towards autonomous delivery technologies.

Managing a fleet of autonomous vehicles presents many unique challenges

There is a lot of focus on the autonomous vehicles themselves, but managing a fleet of autonomous vehicles presents many unique challenges. GM CEO Mary Barra recognized that when GM announced they are pulling the plug on Cruise, saying “Cruise was well on its way to a robotaxi business — but when you look at the fact, you’re deploying a fleet, there’s a whole operations piece of doing that,”  This includes accessing fleet-wide metrics to measure the fleet’s effectiveness and report to stakeholders; how and where to charge the vehicles; and optimizing the service for the best performance, among other things.

EV faces new challenges but still seems inevitable 

EV sales in the US continued to rise in 2024, growing by 11% year over year in Q3 and reaching record highs for both volume and market share but the rate of growth has declined in the past year, and in light of Trump's reelection, regulatory pressures and incentive to adopt EVs may diminish, eroding that growth even more. 

On top of that, the implementation of stricter tariffs and regulations on Chinese EVs and parts in the US and European markets is likely to reshape the competitive landscape, making it harder for companies like BYD and SAIC to expand. 

US and European manufacturers may face supply chain challenges as the Treasury Department enforces recent restrictions on EV tax credits for vehicles containing Chinese components. These restrictions could disrupt the supply of certain materials and components needed for electric vehicle production.

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Europe’s new reporting challenges 

In the EU, the comprehensive regulatory framework included in the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD) and stricter emissions standards will accelerate EV adoption. But it also means fleet operators will need to demonstrate concrete progress toward sustainability goals in their mandatory CSRD reports.

As the first reporting cycle under CSRD requirements begins in 2025, the focus on fleet management reporting will shift towards carbon emissions monitoring and reduction strategies, sustainability performance metrics, and environmental impact assessments alongside supply chain transparency.

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Delivery becomes more dependent on optimized operations for success 

As more and more fleets digitize operations in recent years (one survey found 93% of fleets with 50+ vehicles in the US use telematics and fleet management platforms), new opportunities for optimizations have become available. And in a competitive environment like the mobility industry, if you don’t seize an opportunity, you are often doomed to fail. 

Using advanced, AI-powered algorithms to optimize routing is practically a staple today. But in order to gain an advantage, companies ought to incorporate multiple variables beyond just the route, including live traffic data, weather conditions, vehicle capacity, energy consumption, driver hours of service and shifts, customer delivery windows, and more. Advanced solutions include dynamic custom maps that ensure driver safety, support multimodality, and incorporate proprietary information. 

In last-mile delivery, the implementation of various transportation modes can increase efficiency significantly by using local hubs on the fringes of urban centers with strict traffic limitations, utilizing bikes for fulfillment, or creating multimodal routes that include both driving and walking in dense areas. 

As postal services around the world modernize, the ability to provide all these modern capabilities on a massive scale is becoming more and more important, especially integrating multiple legacy systems, providing enhanced tracking and delivery prediction capabilities, and setting up a platform that is ready for autonomous delivery vehicles in the future. 

A growing divide between urban and rural 

2025 will see a widening of the gap in the requirements placed on fleets operating in dense urban areas compared to those operating in rural areas. Cities worldwide are expected to significantly limit vehicle access with new Ultra Low Emission Zones (ULEZ), congestion fees, and parking limitations. The pressure toward integrated mobility solutions, EVs and public/shared transportation will affect fleet operations in these surroundings. 

Some cities likely require mobility operators to share more data, including real-time vehicle location data, emissions and environmental impact metrics, access to usage patterns and safety incident reporting.

Rural and less densely populated areas however still require service, and some of the newer technologies deployed in urban environments may not be ideal for rural ones. Pioneering mobility operators like Uride in Canada or  MOD in Germany for example provide a mix of delivery and ride services, relying on advanced optimization and pooling to meet the needs of a dispersed population and provide excellence in service. Aware of the need to modernize transportation services in sparsely populated regions, the  European Union recently created a Rural Mobility initiative to connect Europe’s rural regions to intelligent transportation services. 

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Conclusion 

The fleet and mobility services industry is poised for significant transformations in 2025 and beyond. The convergence of AI in fleet management, autonomous technologies, the continued evolution of electric vehicles, and an evolving regulatory landscape is reshaping how we think about transportation and delivery services. From the rise of robotaxis in San Francisco to the complex challenges of EV adoption and the growing divide between urban and rural mobility solutions, the industry is navigating an unprecedented period of innovation and disruption.

The path forward will require agility. Companies will rely more on technological innovation to meet regulatory compliance, sustainability goals, and the practical realities of diverse operational environments. AI and advanced digital fleet management are fast becoming critical enablers, providing insights and automated efficiencies.

Strategic thinking, adaptability, and a commitment to meeting the evolving needs of customers across different markets are critical. Those who embrace innovation while remaining responsive to regulatory, environmental, and customer demands—will be the leaders of tomorrow's transportation revolution.